TOWARDS A UNIFIED APPROACH TO CAUSAL ANALYSIS IN TRAFFIC SAFETY USING STRUCTURAL CAUSAL MODELS

This paper adopts the view that the basic level for causal modeling in road safety is that of the individual accident where human decisions interact with physical, deterministic processes. Presented is a feasible program that identifies a measure of causal effectiveness, called probability of necessity (PN), and how the PN arises at both the basic and aggregated levels of the analysis is shown. The argument will be by example that focuses on accidents involving vehicles and pedestrians. The paper will make a connection between PN and accident reduction factors, and will, by using a structural causal model, show how to use PN to assess the potential safety impact of speed controls on individual residential streets. Also illustrated is how PN generalizes the notion of causal factor used in accident reconstruction.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0080439268
• Corporate Authors:

  Elsevier

  The Boulevard, Langford Lane
  Kidlington, Oxford  United Kingdom  OX5 1GB
• Authors:
  • Davis, G A
• Conference:
  • Transportation and Traffic Theory in the 21st Century. Proceedings of the 15th International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory
  • Location: University of South Australia in Adelaide, Austral
  • Date: 2002-7-16 to 2002-7-18
• Publication Date: 2002

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 247-265

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aggregate tests; Crash reconstruction; Pedestrian vehicle crashes; Probability theory; Residential streets; Speed control; Statistical analysis; Structural models; Traffic safety
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00929738
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0080439268
• Files: TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Aug 2 2002 12:00AM