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https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/27432/critical-issues-in-transportation-for-2024-and-beyond

THE ANCIENT ART OF FORECASTING

This article attempts to explain, in simple language, some of the basic techniques of forecasting. Trend analysis which involves graphical representation of past and future traffic figures is suitable only for some types of short-term forecasts. Graphs on logarithmic and semi-logarithmic graph paper, could show traffic as growing in a straight line and a constant percentage. Sinusoidal curves could be used to show seasonal and other variations in traffic. The gravitational forecast was developed, and it became possible to take into account all types of factors (independent variables) in lieu of, or in addition to, time in preparing forecasts. Computers accelerated progress in forecasting, and were used to verify whether or not various possible independent variables had relationship (correlation) with the traffic under study. It then became necessary to forecast the behaviour of the independent variables which thus become dependent variables, and econometric models were developed. However, it was found that past correlations became obsolete very quickly. An attempt was then made to control future events and led to the development or normative forecasting; policymaking and forecasting became more closely associated. In the Delphi approach specialist views from more than one field are incorporated in the forecast.

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Reinhold Publishing Company, Incorporated

    600 Summer Street
    Stamford, CT  United States  06904
  • Publication Date: 1978-1

Media Info

  • Pagination: p. 46-47
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00172920
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Air Transport World
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 26 1978 12:00AM