A LONG-TERM FORECAST OF U.S. WATERBORNE FOREIGN TRADE 1976-2000 VOLUME I. SUMMARY

The forecasts in this three volume report extend from 1976 to the year 2000 in five-year intervals. The first volume is a summary that includes a full description of forecasting models and procedures as well as highlights of forecasts for major import and export commodity groups. Volume Two consists of computer print-outs of forecasts of 3-digit Census Schedule A and B commodities by 19 world trading regions; and the third volume contains similar material classified by 65 major trade routes. The forecast is based on U.S. Bureau of the Census annual tapes that store 354 time series, covering the period of 1967-1975, on a 3-digit commodity level. Since many trade volumes at the 3-digit level are of minor quantity, they are grouped into 82 aggregated time series consisting of 41 imports and 41 exports. These constitute the dependent variables for the micro models. The independent variables were derived from Data Resources Incorporated time series of a wide variety of economic variables for both the U.S. and foreign countries. The reliability of the forecasts diminishes as more detailed forecasts are made relative to the aggregated forecasts. Thus, the 354 commodity level forecasts are less reliable, as are the regional and trade route forecasts. The forecasts are subject to periodic revisions and occasional updates as needs arise.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • See also Volume 2: 3-Digit World, Regional and Coastal Route Forecast (PB-274602) and Volume 3: 3-Digit Trade Route Forecast (PB-274603). The entire set may be ordered: PB 274600/AS.
• Corporate Authors:

  Maritime Administration

  Office of Policy and Plans, Division of Marine Plans, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Benetatos, P A
  • Byington, R I
  • Franklin, P L
  • Hartman, T J
  • Chung, H C
• Publication Date: 1977-11

Media Info

• Pagination: v.p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Commodities; Economic analysis; Economic forecasting; Exports; Forecasting; Foreign; Freight traffic; Imports; International trade; Mathematical models; Shipping; Trade; Trade routes; Transportation; Water
• Old TRIS Terms: Trade forecasts; Transportation models and systems; Waterborne trade
• Subject Areas: Economics; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00172849
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transportation Statistical Reference File, TSC
• Report/Paper Numbers: MA-GEN-370-78015 One-Time
• Files: TSR, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Apr 12 1978 12:00AM