AUTOMOTIVE ENERGY FORECASTS: IMPACT OF PRICE, AVAILABILITY, AND EFFICIENCY

Aggregate automotive fuel demand models are developed for each of New York's 9 SMSA's and the rest of the state, using monthly data from 1972-75. The models estimate annual fuel use from population, VMT, average fleet efficiency, gasoline price and supply, and economic factors such as unemployment, business activity, and labor force participation. Gasoline price elasticities determined from the models are found to decrease with city size, to about -0.10; supply elasticities vary between 0.08 and 0.80. Forecasts of NYS automotive fuel use are then made for each year from 1975-1990, testing 3 scenarios: (A) fleet efficiency rising to 27.5 mpg, coupled with trend (2% annual) growth in per-capita mobility and stable real prices ($1.16 gal. in 1990); (B) fleet efficiency rising to only 22 mpg, but prices increasing to meet the demand drop in Test A; (C) fleet efficiency rising to only 22 mpg, coupled with trend growth in per-capita mobility and stable real prices. Results show that full fleet turnover (Test A) permits continued growth in per-capita mobility and stable real prices, while achieving a 24% savings in gasoline demand. With partial fleet turnover (Tests B and C), however, this same conservation can only be achieved by much lower (0.5% annual) per-capita mobility growth coupled with significantly higher prices ($2.08/gal. in 1990). If the conservation goal is dropped, partial turnover can sustain continued mobility growth and stable real prices at 1975 demand levels. It is concluded that full fleet turnover is essential for achieving significant gasoline conservation in N.Y. with reasonable gasoline prices and continued mobility growth. A number of actions are therefore suggested to encourage the purchasing of fuel-efficient vehicles. /Author/

  • Corporate Authors:

    New York State Department of Transportation

    Planning Division, State Campus, Building 4
    Albany, NY  United States  12232
  • Authors:
    • Erlbaum, N S
    • Hartgen, D T
    • Cohen, G S
  • Publication Date: 1977-12

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 99 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00179028
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Res. Rpt. 133
  • Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
  • Created Date: Jul 29 1978 12:00AM