EFFECT OF PERFORMANCE MODEL ACCURACY ON OPTIMAL PAVEMENT DESIGN

This paper presents an analysis of the data collected during the American Association of State Highways Officials (AASHO) road test of the late 1950s, based on probabilistic duration modeling techniques. Duration techniques enable the stochastic nature of pavement failure time to be evaluated as well as censored data to be incorporated in the statistical estimation of the model parameters. The paper also presents the use of economic optimization principles for determining the optimal design of flexible pavements. The effect of deterioration model accuracy on optimal design and lifecycle costs are studied by comparing three models: (1) a simple regression model developed by the AASHO, which forms the basis of design standards in use today; (2) a regression model that was developed with the same AASHO data set, but that includes a correction for data censoring; (3) the probabilistic model developed in the first part of this paper. Results show that the AASHO model, when used as an input to lifecycle cost minimization, produces a pavement structural number that is lower than that produced by using the other two deterioration models. This is the result of using a biased pavement deterioration model, which over-predicts pavement life, thus underestimating the frequency of resurfacing and total pavement costs. Actual lifecycle costs are best approximated by the lifecycle costs predicted by using the most accurate deterioration model. The model developed in this paper has the lowest standard error of prediction among the three models and thus appears to be the most accurate model reviewed.

• Record URL:
  • http://www.uctc.net/papers/561.pdf
• 
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/10939687
• Corporate Authors:

  Blackwell Publishing

  350 Main Street
  Malden, MA  United States  02148
• Authors:
  • Madanat, S
  • Prozzi, J A
  • Han, Mengmeng
• Publication Date: 2002-1

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 22-30
• Serial:
  • Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
  • Volume: 17
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: Blackwell Publishing
  • ISSN: 1093-9687
  • Serial URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-8667

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accelerated tests; Design standards; Estimating; Failure analysis; Flexible pavements; Life cycle costing; Optimization; Pavement design; Pavement performance; Pavement structural numbers; Probability; Regression analysis; Resurfacing; Road tests; Standard error; Time duration
• Identifier Terms: American Association of State Highway Officials
• Uncontrolled Terms: Censored data; Probabilistic models
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Design; Finance; Highways; Pavements; Vehicles and Equipment; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00921656
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 3 2002 12:00AM