A SURVEY OF TECHNIQUES OF CAR OWNERSHIP FORECASTING

This paper deals with techniques for deriving car ownership forecasts. The first of these methods discussed are those based on extrapolation procedures which incorporate logistic curves. The prediction of saturation levels by this approach is shown to be very difficult. Econometric modelling of car ownership is then explored. The use of utility theory to show why people should wish to own a car, is not suitable for estimation. Better results are obtained with multiple regression models using linear, log linear or logit formulations. Some results from category analysis are also discussed, as is the influence on car-ownership equations of income variations, spatial variables (such as density etc), and taste factors. /TRRL/

• Corporate Authors:

  University of Leeds

  Institute for Transport Studies
  Leeds, West Yorkshire  United Kingdom  LS2 9JT
• Authors:
  • FOWKES, A S
  • BUTTON, K J
• Publication Date: 1977-1

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 50 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobiles; Econometric models; Extrapolation; Forecasting; Income; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Population; Regression analysis; Utility theory
• ITRD Terms: 1243: Car; 132: Forecast; 256: Income; 335: Population; 6588: Regression analysis; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Society; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00178667
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Report/Paper Numbers: Working Paper No. 92Monograph
• Files: ITRD, TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Sep 27 1978 12:00AM