Predicting consumers' reactions to new or modified transportation systems is a goal of travel demand forecasting. However, the application of forecasting models assumes that new transportation systems are sufficiently defined to allow these systems to be contrasted to existing systems in each of the dimensions which are salient in consumers' choices. The present reseach is concerned with steps in the development of new system concepts which precede demand forecasting; these development steps have received very little attention in the transportation literature. The goals of the proposed approach are twofold: first, to identigfy a range of distinct new system concepts which both satisfy consumers' needs perceived by planners and which are consistent with the preferences of a substantial population of consumers; and second, to identify those perception dimensions which consumers use in distinguishing the new concepts from each other and from existing alternatives. The methodology involves three stages; focus group interviews of consumers, followed by workshops of planners, designers and engineers, followed finally by focus group interviews of consumers once again. The first stage identifies consumers' concerns with existing alternatives and their desires with respect to new options. The second stage identifies candidate new systems which potentially satisfy projected technological constraints and consumers' concerns. The third stage eliminates certain of the proposed concepts if consumers' preferences are not sufficiently met, and identifies the salient dimensions of consumers' perceptions. A case study application in developing concepts of small, special-purpose urban vehicles is briefly described and on outline is given of concept testing procedures which might logically follow application of this development procedure. /Author/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This paper was presented to the Institute of Management Sciences/Operations Research Society of America, San Francisco, California, May 9-11, 1977.
  • Corporate Authors:

    General Motors Corporation

    Research and Development Center, 30500 Mound Road
    Warren, MI  United States  48090
  • Authors:
    • Golob, T F
  • Publication Date: 0

Media Info

  • Features: References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 19 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00177310
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: GMR-2428
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 19 1978 12:00AM