URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING PROJECT PHASE I FINAL REPORT SERIES, VOLUME V. DEMAND MODEL ESTIMATION AND VALIDATION

The project attempts to provide transportation engineers and planners with the information necessary to select and use policy-oriented disaggregate behavioral travel demand models, and to assess the applicability and limits of specific alternative models. This volume is devoted to the investigations of demand, forming the core of this project. Data are collected on a sample of individual commuters in the San Francisco Bay Area before the initiation of Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) service. BART patronage is predicted from demand models fitted to the pre-BART data. The predictions are compared with actual BART patronage, using a second survey taken after BART was in service. Attention is concentrated on work mode-choice. These studies demonstrate disaggregate travel demand forecasting to be a practical policy analysis tool. The limitations of the current generation of these models are spelled out, and suggest that considerable care is needed in their application to new mode forecasting, and in transferring models across populations.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Sponsored in part by Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York. See also Volume 3, PB-270 930. Grant--NSF-GI-43740, NSF-APR74-20392.
• Corporate Authors:

  University of California, Berkeley

  Institute of Transportation Studies Library
  Berkeley, CA  United States  94720

  National Science Foundation

  Research Applied to National Needs
  Washington, DC  United States  20550

  Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

  630 Fifth Avenue
  New York, NY  United States  10020
• Authors:
  • McFadden, D L
  • Talvitie, A
  • Cosslett, S
  • Hasan, I
  • REID, F A
• Publication Date: 1977-6

Media Info

• Pagination: 590 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Mathematical models; Modal split; Passenger transportation; Passengers; Railroad transportation; Rapid transit; Regional planning; Routes; Transportation; Transportation operations; Transportation planning; Travel demand; Urban transportation
• Identifier Terms: San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District
• Uncontrolled Terms: Transportation management; Transportation models
• Geographic Terms: California
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00175894
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: UCB-ITS-SR-77-9, NSF/RA-770328
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 28 2003 12:00AM