URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING PROJECT PHASE I FINAL REPORT SERIES, VOLUME V. DEMAND MODEL ESTIMATION AND VALIDATION

The project attempts to provide transportation engineers and planners with the information necessary to select and use policy-oriented disaggregate behavioral travel demand models, and to assess the applicability and limits of specific alternative models. This volume is devoted to the investigations of demand, forming the core of this project. Data are collected on a sample of individual commuters in the San Francisco Bay Area before the initiation of Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) service. BART patronage is predicted from demand models fitted to the pre-BART data. The predictions are compared with actual BART patronage, using a second survey taken after BART was in service. Attention is concentrated on work mode-choice. These studies demonstrate disaggregate travel demand forecasting to be a practical policy analysis tool. The limitations of the current generation of these models are spelled out, and suggest that considerable care is needed in their application to new mode forecasting, and in transferring models across populations.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Sponsored in part by Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York. See also Volume 3, PB-270 930. Grant--NSF-GI-43740, NSF-APR74-20392.
  • Corporate Authors:

    University of California, Berkeley

    Institute of Transportation Studies Library
    Berkeley, CA  USA  94720

    National Science Foundation

    Research Applied to National Needs
    Washington, DC  USA  20550

    Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

    630 Fifth Avenue
    New York, NY  USA  10020
  • Authors:
    • McFadden, D L
    • Talvitie, A
    • Cosslett, S
    • Hasan, I
    • REID, F A
  • Publication Date: 1977-6

Media Info

  • Pagination: 590 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00175894
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: UCB-ITS-SR-77-9, NSF/RA-770328
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 28 2003 12:00AM