THE APPLICATION OF SYSTEMS ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES TO THE MODELLING OF NEW TOWN GROWTH

This paper shows how a model of the growth of a new town can be built up using the Extended Kalman Filter to identify the dynamics of the system. The model is then used to illustrate the link that must exist between type and size of a model and the data from which it is derived. It demonstrates the utility of a recursive identification procedure when dealing with a system whose structure is uncertain. Defects in the model structure are indicated by gross fluctuations in the recursive estimates while smaller perturbations can be an indication of parameter variations due to exogenons effects. The model was based on the supply of labor rather than on the growth of the industry. The modelling technique involved the synthesizing of the final model from a smaller a priori model in order to relate the size and complexity of the model to the information contained in the data.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Proceedings of Seminar E, Urban and Regional Models for Public Policy Analysis, Summer Annual Meeting, University of Warwick, England, July 1975.
• Corporate Authors:

  Planning and Transport Res and Computation Co Ltd

  167 Oxford Street
  London W1R 1AH,   England 
• Authors:
  • Gillespie, D W
• Publication Date: 1975-7

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: p. 132-145
• Serial:
  • Publication of: International Ergonomics Association
  • Publisher: International Ergonomics Association

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Mathematical models; New towns; Personnel; Systems engineering; Urban growth
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00149526
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: Proceeding
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 30 1977 12:00AM