Following a short presentation of the aims and objects of market research in shipbuilding and the definition of some important terms, the paper, by means of selected examples, traces the history and development of market research in the period 1965-75. Forecasting techniques have come into increasing use and the shift in emphasis from purely global studies to sectoral studies has necessitated certain changes in approach, i.e. from the mainly economic extrapolation of statistical data to "flexible trend calculation" taking account of possible alteration in the balance between building capacity and demand - from "point prognosis", i.e. the prediction of a definite value for a specific year, to case studies involving sensitivity analyses of the main factors likely to affect future developments. Against the background of an extensive European/Japanese market study of large merchant ships, the Author examines the possibilities and limitations of market studies in shipbuilding, with particular discussion of the significance of individual factors on the results; these include growth in gross national products, increases in population, energy consumption, proportion of oil in the primary energy supply, the influence of oil politics, etc. Studies of the effect of fuel costs on optimal ship operation and of the influence of cargo rates on the most effective utilisation of the world fleet are also discussed.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Springer Verlag

    175 5th Avenue
    New York, NY  United States  10010
  • Authors:
    • Kerlen, H
  • Publication Date: 0

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00148845
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: British Ship Research Association
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 15 1977 12:00AM