SIMULATION OF HURRICANE RISK IN THE U.S. USING EMPIRICAL TRACK MODEL

The mathematical simulation of hurricanes is the most accepted approach for estimating wind speeds for the design of structures and assessment of hurricane risk. This paper describes a new technique for modeling hurricane risk in the United States. A storm track modeling approach is employed where, for each hurricane, the entire track as it crosses the ocean and makes landfall is modeled. The central pressure is modeled as a function of the sea surface temperature. The approach is validated through comparisons of simulated and observed key hurricane statistics (central pressure, translation speed, heading, and approach distance) along the U.S. coastline. The simulated and observed landfall rates of intense hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Scale 3 and higher) also are compared on a regional basis along the coast. The model is able to reproduce the continuously varying hurricane climatology along the U.S. coastline, and it provides a rational means for examining the hurricane risk for geographically distributed systems such as transmission lines and insurance portfolios.

  • Availability:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • This research was partly supported by the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., under a Phase II Small Business Innovation Research Grant, ISI 9304222, and by the National Association of Home Builders, Washington, D.C.
  • Corporate Authors:

    American Society of Civil Engineers

    1801 Alexander Bell Drive
    Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
  • Authors:
    • Vickery, P J
    • Skerlj, P F
    • Twisdale, L A
  • Publication Date: 2000-10

Language

  • English

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00800596
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Contract Numbers: CMS-9520295, CMS-9710204, NSC 86-2621-P-006-028
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 11 2000 12:00AM