CASE STUDY OF FUTURE SUPPLIES OF EASTERN LOW-SULFUR COAL: PRICES, BOTTLENECKS AND CONTINGINCIES
This paper describes a model developed to forecast the future supplies and costs of eastern low-sulfur coal. Growth constraints are assessed and future supply curves for the southern West Virginia mines are derived. Because forecasts are highly conditioned by model assumptions, the construction of the model is rather fully described. The model is then used to develop supply estimates for the next fifteen years under varying demand conditions. It is concluded that eastern low-sulfur coal can play an important role in meeting environmental and energy policy objectives between 1980 and 2000, if labor constraints can be overcome and a market for low-sulfur steam coal developed. Before and after that period its potential impact will be minimal. Costs will be reasonable if historic growth in productivity is reattained. Based on model results suggestions for regulatory policies are framed.
- This study was presented at the 2nd Symposium on Coal Utilization, National Coal Association/Bituminous Coal Research Conference and Expo 2, held in Louisville, Kentucky, October 21-23, 1975.
National Coal Association1130 17th Street, NW
Washington, DC United States 20036
- Hieronymus, W H
- Publication Date: 1975
- Pagination: p. 151-166
- TRT Terms: Coal; Coal industry; Coal resources; Forecasting; Freight traffic; Mathematical models; Traffic forecasting
- Subject Areas: Freight Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads;
- Accession Number: 00148308
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: Engineering Index
- Report/Paper Numbers: Conf Paper
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Feb 16 1977 12:00AM