CRITIQUE OF SAM PELTZMAN'S STUDY (1) THE EFFECTS OF AUTOMOBILE SAFETY REGULATION. (2) REPLY

The variables used in Peltzman's analysis were reviewed. It was concluded that some of them were arbitrarily chosen, that some were correlated, and that important factors were omitted. This may cause spurious and biased correlations. Peltzman's time series regression equations were reconstructed and found unstable, which makes them useless for predictions which are one basis for Peltzman's conclusions. The cross-sectional analyses were found to be unvalidated. Their results for important factors disagreed with those from the time series analysis. Peltzman's conclusions on the role of young drivers were compared with their actual accident involvement and found to disagree. To illustrate the misuse of trend models a "model" for pedestrian deaths was constructed which leads to conclusions. /TRRL/

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Pergamon Press, Incorporated

    Maxwell House, Fairview Park
    Elmsford, NY  United States  10523
  • Authors:
    • Joksch, H C
    • Peltzman, S
  • Publication Date: 1976-6

Media Info

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00147959
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: May 11 1977 12:00AM