THE FUTURE MOBILITY OF THE WORLD POPULATION. IN: THE AUTOMOBILE

The paper presents a model designed to allow formulation of aggregate regional and global and long term scenarios for how travelers choose among transport modes when satisfying their demand for mobility. The aim is to project total mobility and the share supplied by each mode for aggregate world regions far into future. An aggregate approach matches the large-scale concerns - such as global markets and globally mixed pollutants - to which the study's results can be applied. After estimating the future demand for total mobility, the share for mobility supplied by each of the four major motorized modes of transport - buses, trains, automobiles, and aircraft - is estimated. These estimations are performed for 11 world regions and aggregate for the whole world. Finally, a statistical analysis is presented of all regressions. The paper also explores whether the results are internally consistent.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/1840647973
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Originally published in: Transportation Research A: Policy and Practice, 2000, April, 171-205.
• Corporate Authors:

  Edward Elgar Publishers

  William Pratt House, 9 Dewey Court
  Northampton, MA  United States  01060-3815
• Authors:
  • Schafer, A
  • Victor, D G
• Publication Date: 2003

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 187-221
• Serial:
  • Classics in Transport Analysis
  • Issue Number: 7
  • Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aggregate tests; Air transportation; Automobile travel; Bus transit; Consistency; Demand; Forecasting; Long range planning; Mobility; Mode choice; Rail (Railroads); Regression analysis
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00964085
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 1840647973
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 29 2003 12:00AM