MODELING AGGREGATE AIR-TRAVEL ITINERARY SHARES: LOGIT MODEL DEVELOPMENT AT A MAJOR US AIRLINE

Itinerary share modeling, forecasting the number of passengers expected to travel on each itinerary between any city pair, is essential for strategic planning in the airline industry. The approach developed and used in this paper is to use a value function, the aggregate analog of utility, to represent the relative desirability of each itinerary connecting every city pair in the U.S. The market share assigned to each itinerary is modeled as an aggregate multinomial logit (MNL) function of the value of the itinerary and the value of all other itineraries serving the city pair. The results are intuitive, and validation tests indicate that the models outperform existing methods. The paper discusses the impacts of changing various itinerary service attributes on carrier market share.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/31005945
• Corporate Authors:

  Elsevier

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  Kidlington, Oxford  United Kingdom  OX5 1GB
• Authors:
  • Coldren, G M
  • Koppelman, F S
  • Kasturirangan, K
  • Mukherjee, A
• Publication Date: 2003-11

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 361-369
• Serial:
  • Journal of Air Transport Management
  • Volume: 9
  • Issue Number: 6
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0969-6997
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09696997

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aggregate tests; Air travel; Demand; Forecasting; Itinerary; Level of service; Logits; Market share; Multinomials; Travel behavior
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Terminals and Facilities;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00964074
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 27 2003 12:00AM