HURRICANE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT

Hurricane forecasting comprises three closely related but (at present) independent prediction tasks, the failure of any one of which may vitiate the success of the others. These tasks are: the prediction of movement and landfall; the simulation of the storm surge including inland and riverine flooding; and the prediction of extreme winds and areal extent of damaging winds. Of these three, the greatest progress has been made in the simulation of storm surge profiles. The least progress has been made in predicting development or change in circulation strength. In fact, the modeling of development has been so ponderous and the initial value problem so intractable that nearly all prediction models designed for operational use seek only to forecast movement. In the sections which follow the authors trace the progress in developing prediction techniques primarily for movement and landfall. The reasons why forecast skills have plateaued and what roadblocks must be removed before significant new improvements can be expected are discussed.

  • Corporate Authors:

    American Society of Mechanical Engineers

    Two Park Avenue
    New York, NY  USA  10016-5990
  • Authors:
    • Simpson, R H
    • Pielke, R A
  • Publication Date: 1976-5

Media Info

  • Features: References;
  • Pagination: p. 601-609
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00147792
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Engineering Index
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 15 1977 12:00AM