EVALUATING RISK IN CONSTRUCTION--SCHEDULE MODEL (ERIC--S): CONSTRUCTION SCHEDULE RISK MODEL

Research was undertaken to develop a method to assist in the determination of the lower and upper activity duration values for schedule risk analysis by program evaluation and review technique analysis or Monte Carlo simulation. A belief network was the modeling environment used for this purpose, and the resulting model was named Evaluating Risk in Construction--Schedule Model. The development of the belief network model consisted of 4 steps. First, construction schedule risks were identified by literature review, expert review, and a group review by a team of experts. Second, cause effect relationships among these risks were identified through an expert survey. This led to the development of the structure of belief network model. Third, probabilities for various combinations of parents for each risk variable were obtained through an expert interview survey and incorporated into the model. Finally, sensitivity analysis was performed. The model was tested using 17 case studies with very good results.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/8675438
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  1801 Alexander Bell Drive
  Reston, VA  United States  20191-4400
• Authors:
  • Nasir, D
  • McCabe, B
  • Hartono, L
• Publication Date: 2003-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 518-527
• Serial:
  • Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
  • Volume: 129
  • Issue Number: 5
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 0733-9364
  • EISSN: 1943-7862
  • Serial URL: http://ascelibrary.org/journal/jcemd4

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Construction engineering; Construction scheduling; Monte Carlo method; Project management; Risk assessment; Risk management; Schedules and scheduling; Transportation planning
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Construction; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; I50: Construction and Supervision of Construction; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00963265
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 30 2003 12:00AM