IS THE BARREL HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY? IMPLICATIONS OF TRANSITIONING TO A NEW TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FUTURE

Beginning in 2000, the Office of Transportation Technologies in the U.S. Department of Energy began an examination of the long-term availability of petroleum supplies for U.S. motor vehicles as well as the projected demand. Included in this analysis was a forecast for the future energy demand of automobiles and trucks, as well as several strategies for the use of alternative fuels and the introduction of new propulsion system technologies into the vehicles. The analysis was extended for fifty years to determine the effects on oil and energy demand as well as greenhouse gas emissions as these fuels and vehicle technologies permeated the fleet of vehicles over time. The study participants included staff from several national laboratories, contractors, and the department. This paper summarizes the major findings of the first phase of the study. Forecasts of world petroleum supply and demand are reviewed. The implications (with attention devoted to energy issues and greenhouse gas emissions) of U.S. transportation energy demand under various technology strategies are then examined.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conf/asilomar.pdf
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  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309085713
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

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  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Johnson, L
  • Greene, D
  • Birky, A
• Conference:
  • Transportation, Energy, and Environmental Policy: Managing Transitions
  • Location: Monterey, California
  • Date: 2001-9-11 to 2001-9-12
• Publication Date: 2003

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 104-129

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Alternate fuels; Demand; Energy; Forecasting; Greenhouse gases; Petroleum fuels; Propulsion; Supply; Technological innovations; Transportation; Vehicles
• Subject Areas: Energy; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); Vehicles and Equipment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00962788
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309085713
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 4 2003 12:00AM