ESTIMATING REAR-END ACCIDENT PROBABILITIES AT SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS: OCCURRENCE-MECHANISM APPROACH

At signalized intersections, rear-end accidents are frequently the predominant accident type. These accidents result from the combination lead-vehicle deceleration and an ineffective response of the following vehicle's driver to this deceleration. This paper mathematically represents this process, by expressing accident probability as the product of the probability of the lead vehicle decelerating and the probability of the driver in the following failing to respond in time to avoid a collision. Using this premise, a model of rear-end accident probabilities is estimated using information on traffic flow, traffic regulations, roadway geometrics, and human factors from four-legged signalized intersections in Tokyo, Japan. Estimation findings provide some important preliminary evidence for the development of countermeasures to reduce the frequency of rear-end accidents at signalized intersections.

Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/8674831
Corporate Authors:
American Society of Civil Engineers

1801 Alexander Bell Drive
Reston, VA United States 20191-4400
Authors:
- Wang, Yinhi
- IEDA, H
- Mannering, F
Publication Date: 2003-7

Language

English

Media Info

Features: Figures; References; Tables;
Pagination: p. 377-384
Serial:
- Journal of Transportation Engineering
- Volume: 129
- Issue Number: 4
- Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
- ISSN: 0733-947X
- Serial URL: https://ascelibrary.org/journal/jtepbs

Subject/Index Terms

TRT Terms: Automobile driving; Crash risk forecasting; High risk locations; Highway safety; Probability; Rear end crashes; Signalized intersections; Traffic crashes
Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure;

Filing Info

Accession Number: 00960551
Record Type: Publication
Files: TRIS, ATRI
Created Date: Jul 8 2003 12:00AM