POLICY-ORIENTED MODELING OF NEW AUTOMOBILE SALES AND FUEL CONSUMPTION

Interactive computer models are described that project changes in the use and ownership of automobiles. An automobile ownership model projects changes in total automobile ownership, a scrappage model estimates the number of automobiles in each age class that will be scrapped, and a new automobile market segmentation model estimates changes in the mix of new automobiles sold in each of three size classes. The models age the automobile population year by year and forecast the number of new automobiles that will be sold and added to the inventory of automobiles in use. Included within the models are a number of economic variables relating to the costs of ownership and operation, each of which may be affected by public policy and may be treated as policy instruments for, say, reducing automotive fuel consumption. The models have been used for a variety of policy impact assessments and are useful for the evaluation of alternative policy choices affecting the use and ownership of automobiles.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/sr/sr169/sr169-001.pdf
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A Publication of these proceedings is sponsored by the Federal Energy Administration and the Transportation Systems Center, DOT.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

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• Authors:
  • Whorf, Robert P
• Conference:
  • Workshop on Strategies for Reducing Gasoline Consumption Through Improved Motor Vehicle Efficiency
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1975-10-7 to 1975-10-8
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 5-11
• Monograph Title: STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING GASOLINE CONSUMPTION THROUGH IMPROVED MOTOR VEHICLE EFFICIENCY
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Board Special Report
  • Issue Number: 169
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0360-859X

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobile travel; Costs; Fuel consumption; Policy; Simulation
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Finance; Highways; Policy; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00142971
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Dec 22 1976 12:00AM