ESTIMATION OF REVENUES FROM USE CHARGES, TAXES, AND OTHER SOURCES OF INCOME

Fuel tax receipts and motor vehicle registration fees account for more than three-quarters of the total revenues available to spend on highway investments. Many states and local governments align future expenditure levels with anticipated revenues, meaning the receipts and expenditures tend to track quite closely with one another. Although revenues tend to be quite stable from one year to the next at the national level, significant annual fluctuations are common at the state level. Fuel tax and registration fee receipts can vary by 25% or more from one year to the next, which can make it difficult for decision makers to set spending targets. The quality of both available data and modeling techniques must be improved so that economists can better understand the dynamics underlying such volatile revenue streams. For example, to predict fuel tax revenues, analysts need better ways to measure relevant input variables, such as vehicle miles traveled and fuel efficiency, as well as the attributes of those variables. In particular, it would be helpful to have a better understanding of commercial vehicle miles traveled, as most research to date has focused on passenger vehicles. Better analytic tools are needed as well, and particularly ones that can anticipate behavioral responses to changes in fuel prices and other relevant factors. Also, as states look to new types of revenue streams, such as tolls and impact fees, policy makers will begin to demand better forecasts of future receipts deriving from these alternative mechanisms for financing transportation infrastructure. Following this presentation are the findings of a working group that developed a list of 7 research proposals on the topic of revenue forecasting.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Pagination: p. 44-46
  • Monograph Title: INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS FOR TRANSPORTATION ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00796909
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309071240
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Aug 4 2000 12:00AM