SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORTATION: ANALYZING THE TRANSITION TO ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES

The use of motor fuels by light-duty vehicles is a major contributor to oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions. The rate of introduction of alternative fuel vehicles will be an important influence on the time path of fuel use and emissions, and the sustainability of transportation patterns. The Transitional Alternative Fuels Vehicle (TAFV) Model simulates the use and cost of alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles over the time period of 1996 to 2010. It is designed to examine the transitional period of alternative fuel and vehicle use. It accounts for dynamic linkages between investments and vehicle and fuel production capacity, tracks vehicle stock evolution, and represents the effects of increasing scale and expanding retail fuel availability on the effective costs to consumers. Fuel and vehicle prices and choices are endogenous. The model extends previous, long-run comparative static analyses of policies that assumed mature vehicle and fuel industries. As a dynamic transitional model, it can help to assess what may be necessary to reach mature, large scale, alternative fuel and vehicle markets, and what it may cost. Various policy cases are considered including continued ethanol subsidies, tax incentives for low greenhouse gas emitting fuels, and the absence of transitional barriers. (In particular the authors find that a tax subsidy on low greenhouse gas emission fuels equal to the current $0.54 per gallon ethanol subsidy will yield a 20% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emission by 2010.)

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 54-82
  • Monograph Title: TRANSPORTATION, ENERGY, AND ENVIRONMENT: POLICIES TO PROMOTE SUSTAINABILITY
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00794740
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jun 20 2000 12:00AM