FORECASTING FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION DEMAND WITH THE SPACE-TIME MULTINOMIAL PROBIT MODEL

The freight transportation market is a key component of the economic system. As such, it is in continuous change as a result of the growth and change of economic activity. Freight transportation demand is a highly variable process over space and time. A multinomial probit (MNP) model with spatially and temporally correlated error structure is proposed for freight demand analysis for tactical/operational planning applications. The resulting model has a large number of alternatives, and estimation is performed using Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the MNP likelihoods. The model is successfully applied to a data set of actual shipments served by a large truckload carrier. In addition to the substantive insights obtained from the estimation results, forecasting tests are performed to assess the model's predictive ability for operational purposes.

  • Availability:
  • Corporate Authors:

    Elsevier

    The Boulevard, Langford Lane
    Kidlington, Oxford  United Kingdom  OX5 1GB
  • Authors:
    • Garrido, R A
    • Mahmassani, H S
  • Publication Date: 2000-6

Language

  • English

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00794483
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jun 8 2000 12:00AM