The most widely used definition of risk in the hazardous transportation literature is the expected consequence of an incident, which, for each edge of the network, is equal to the product of the incident probability and a quantifiable consequence. This definition ignores the risk-averse attitudes of many decisionmakers when dealing with low probability/high consequence events. The authors of this paper suggest that avoiding a catastrophe may be a relevant issue in routing hazardous materials and introduce 3 different models of catastrophe avoidance (CA). In the first model, CA is achieved by minimizing the maximum population exposure. In the second model, the variance of the route consequence is incorporated into the decision. In the third model, an explicit disutility function is used. It is shown that all 3 models reduce to a standard shortest path problem. Each one avoids high-population areas of the transport network. Numerical examples are given and the similarities and differences among the models are discussed.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

    901 Elkridge Landing Road, Suite 400
    Linthicum, MD  United States  21090-2909
  • Authors:
    • Erkut, E
    • Ingolfsson, A
  • Publication Date: 2000-5


  • English

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  • Accession Number: 00794471
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jun 7 2000 12:00AM