A MARKET ATTRACTION MODE FOR PREDICTING THE US MARKET SHARE OF LARGE CIVIL AIRCRAFT

With global annual sales exceeding $65 billion, the large civil aircraft industry is an important economic and strategic element of the European Union and US economies. Here we define large civil aircraft (LCA) as those aircraft with capacities exceeding 121 passengers and dedicated to the air passenger market served by commercial airlines. This paper employs a transformed log-centered market attraction model to forecast the US market share of LCA. This model specification ensures that the predicted market share is in the range [0,1] and that the sum of all predicted market shares is equal to 1.0, both logical process requirements. In this special case, where there are two producers, the market attraction model becomes a logit regression model. Here the logit regression modes is specified as an autoregressive distributed lag mode in which US market share is predicted by quantitative and qualitative predictor variables, an autoregressive lag operator and a linear trend component.

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    Elsevier

    The Boulevard, Langford Lane
    Kidlington, Oxford  United Kingdom  OX5 1GB
  • Authors:
    • Fernandez, A
    • Jacobs, D
    • Keating, C
    • Kauffman, P
  • Publication Date: 2000-1

Language

  • English

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00792844
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 27 2000 12:00AM