MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF TRANSPORT POLICY LEVERS ON FUEL EFFICIENCY AND NATIONAL FUEL CONSUMPTION

This paper provides an overview of the main features of a Vehicle Market Model (VMM) that estimates changes to vehicle stock/kilometerage, fuel consumption (FC), and carbon dioxide emitted. It is disaggregated into 4 basic vehicle types. The model includes: trends in FC, including the role of fuel price; a sub-model to estimate the FC of vehicles on roads characterized by user-defined driving cycle regimes; procedures that reflect distribution of traffic across different area/road types; and the ability to vary the speed from one year to another, or as a result of traffic growth. The most significant variable influencing FC was prior year consumption, followed by dummy variables related to engine size, the time trend, and then fuel price. The effect of fuel price on car fuel efficiency was observed to be insignificant in 2 of the 3 versions of the model, and the size of fuel price term was also the smallest. This indicates that the effectiveness of using fuel prices as a direct policy tool to reduce FC consumption may be limited. Fuel prices may have significant indirect impacts as may other factors such as the threat of legislation.

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  • English

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  • Accession Number: 00792658
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: May 25 2000 12:00AM