SPILL MODELING FOR AIRLINES
Spill models estimate average passenger loads when demand occasionally exceeds capacity. Such models have been in use for over 20 years. The shape of the distribution of demand is discussed from both theory and observation. Sources of variance are identified and calibrated. Measurement problems and techniques are discussed. Two alternate spill formulas are presented. A model revision responds to changes in process caused by computer reservation systems and revenue management. The concept that spill losses should be valued at discount fares in discussed. The recapture of spill demand is presented as well as when such a phenomenon is relevant. Comparison of various sources of error is included. Finally, the use of spill models in reverse to imply demand from load is shown to have poor accuracy. The paper is meant to offer to the literature a reference for basic use. It is the result of 20 years involvement in spill model derivations, calibrations, and applications.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0080435904
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Corporate Authors:
The Boulevard, Langford Lane
Kidlington, Oxford United Kingdom OX5 1GB -
Authors:
- Swan, W M
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Conference:
- World Transport Research: Selected Proceedings of the 8th World Conference on Transport Research
- Location: Antwerp, Belgium
- Date: 1998-7-12 to 1998-7-17
- Publication Date: 1999
Language
- English
Media Info
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: p. 225-237
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Airplanes; Capacity restraint; Computer models; Passenger aircraft; Reservation systems; Travel demand; Travel demand management
- Subject Areas: Aviation; Passenger Transportation; Vehicles and Equipment;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00783935
- Record Type: Publication
- ISBN: 0080435904
- Report/Paper Numbers: Volume 1
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Feb 7 2000 12:00AM