BASELINE ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECASTS FOR TRANSPORTATION: A REVIEW AND EVALUATION

A baseline projection of energy consumption is needed to estimate the potential energy savings from proposed transport technology and operational improvements. The Reference Energy System projection by Brookhaven National Laboratories and that which Stanford Research Institute produced for Gulf Oil are reviewed here. Attention is focused on the growth rate assumptions of the forecasts and the allowances made for the sensitivity of transport demand and technological efficiency to fuel price changes. The alternative trajectories of energy use are examined for automobile, bus and intercity air and rail passenger travel, and also for freight movement. Little, if any, justification can be found for many of the assumptions used to estimate transport demand and energy intensiveness. The assumptions underlying the Brookhaven National Laboratories projections are more explicit on changes in energy efficiency and energy price and shifts in transport patterns. However, the relationship of automobile travel, the largest component, to energy price is not specified clearly. The Stanford projection is based on seemingly arbitrary assumptions about changes in travel patterns and energy efficiency with no reference to the market process which must bring them about. It is concluded that the Brookhaven projection is a reasonable interim benchmark. Its structure should improve by refining and validating or revising the judgmental estimates on which it is based. This can be accomplished by identifying those judgements to which the energy consumption projections are most sensitive and modifying them, based on information presently available concerning the transport sector and/or information and relationships which can be developed by limited research. (ERA citation 01:026007)

  • Corporate Authors:

    Argonne National Laboratory

    9700 South Cass Avenue
    Argonne, IL  USA  60439

    Energy Research and Development Administration

    20 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
    Washington, DC  USA  20590
  • Authors:
    • Koppelman, F S
    • O'Sullivan, P
    • Collum, T
  • Publication Date: 1976-5

Media Info

  • Pagination: 42 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00146599
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Contract Numbers: W-31-109-Eng-38
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Feb 16 1977 12:00AM