FORECASTING FARE-SENSITIVE DIAL-A-BUS DEMAND WITHOUT SURVEYS

This paper explains a technique for estimating demand for Dial-A-Bus service in small urban areas. The procedure is simple and understandable. It can be implemented with little effort yet is sensitive to service fare and community variables. Its primary advantage over techniques used earlier is that it eliminates (or at least decreases) the need for further home interview surveys. The shape (or price elasticity) of the demand curve is established using a "non-commitment" demand curve which is a composite for several cities as established from home interview surveys. Actual demand is estimated by using data for existing bus systems in Batavia and Oneonta to establish a range of values for actual usage rates. Demand curves for nine age, sex, and trip purpose categories are provided. Dial-A-Bus demand for the test community is estimated by choosing a usage rate which is within the range established for the desired fare. This is done for each of the nine age, sex, and trip purpose categories and is multiplied by population of that age-sex group to estimate demand. A hypothetical demonstration of the procedure is shown using actual data for Glens Falls, New York.

• Corporate Authors:

  New York State Department of Transportation

  1220 Washington Avenue
  Albany, NY  United States  12232
• Authors:
  • KNIGHTON, R G
• Publication Date: 1976-7

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 30 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Fares; Forecasting; Paratransit services; Travel demand; Urban areas
• Old TRIS Terms: Dial-a-bus
• Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00142202
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: Prelim. Rpt. 104 Res. Rpt.
• Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Feb 16 1977 12:00AM