BUS TRANSIT ROUTE DEMAND MODEL (ABRIDGMENT)

This paper describes a model that will predict the effects of fare changes, route relocations, and headway changes on either an existing or a proposed bus route. The model should be applicable on a single-route basis so that systemwide models would not be required every time a new route extension was being considered. The model is based on the fact that transit ridership is related directly to the existence of both population and employment within good access times of the route. The model has been calibrated twice, once for Austin, Texas, and once for Kitchner-Waterloo, Ontario, The calibration results were found to be similar in both cases. The author concludes that the calibration results thus far have been promising for the two cities studied. The transferability of coefficients from one city to another is not directly possible. The model, in controlling for differences in automobile ownership, population, access to route, headways, shows considerable promise in comparing the performance of different routes and systems, and when sufficient route data have been gathered to allow for a more confident estimate of the parameters, it should be very useful for the planning, design, and operation of urban bus routes.

• Record URL:
  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1977/625/625-008.pdf
• Record URL:
  https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=BUS+TRANSIT+ROUTE+DEMAND+MODEL+(ABRIDGMENT)&author=J.+Shortreed&publication_year=1977
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309026504
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Public Transportation Planning and Development. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Shortreed, John H
• Conference:
  • 56th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1977-1-24 to 1977-1-28
• Publication Date: 1977

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 31-33
• Monograph Title: Transit planning and operations
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 625
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accessibility; Bus transportation; Calibration; Fares; Forecasting; Headways; Mathematical models; Public transit; Ridership; Routing; Urban transportation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Motor Carriers; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00168067
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309026504
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Jan 30 1981 12:00AM