METHODS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF CONFIDENCE BOUNDS FOR THE TOP-EVENT UNAVAILABILITY OF FAULT TREES

Given the uncertainties of the primary input data a method is described for the evaluation of the firt two moments of the top event existence probability. These moments are then used to estimate confidence bounds by several approaches which are based on standard inequalities (e.g. Tchebycheff, Cantelli, etc.) or on empirical distributions (the Johnson family). Several examples indicate that the Johnson Family of distributions yield results which are in good agreement with those produced by Monte Carlo simulation.

• Corporate Authors:

  North Holland Publishing Company

  68-70 N.Z. Voorburgwal, Box 103
  Amsterdam C,   Netherlands 
• Authors:
  • Apostolakis, G
  • Lee, Y T
• Publication Date: 1977

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 411-419
• Serial:
  • Nuclear Engineering and Design
  • Volume: 41
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: North Holland Publishing Company

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Fault tree analysis; Information processing; Monte Carlo method; Reliability; Risk analysis; Statistical analysis
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00167993
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Engineering Index
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jan 13 1978 12:00AM