PREDICTING TRANSPORTATION IMPACT IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

The Georgia Transportation Planning Land Use Model was designed to emphasize (a) the flexibility of estimating changes in key socioeconomic vaiables, (b) the use of explicit judgmental intervention in the modeling process, and (c) the key role of the model user in developing and implementing models. This paper describes the general structure of the model and summarizes the implementation of an experimental model for a 17-county test area in north Georgia. The socioeconomic data were collected for 159 counties in Georgia from 1950 to 1970. These data provided the empirical basis for a two stage, multiple regression analysis that was designed to measure the specific influence of changes in accessibility on economic development. The influence of a proposed highway improvement program on future development and land use was assessed for the 17-county test area. the results from testing and model indicate that, if we are to predict changes in accessibility that result from highway improvements, then with some confidence we can predict changes in population, employment, housing densities, and incomes. Estimated changes in these key socioeconomic variables can be translated into estimates of land that will be required for future development. This estimate can be made under any set of public constraints hypothesized. A technique for using the model in the transportation decision process is presented.

Media Info

  • Media Type: Print
  • Features: Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: pp 68-72
  • Monograph Title: Social and economic factors in transportation planning
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00163026
  • Record Type: Publication
  • ISBN: 0309025966
  • Files: TRIS, TRB
  • Created Date: Oct 13 1977 12:00AM