FACTORS AFFECTING WORLD PERTOLEUM PRICES TO 1985

Although crude petroleum supplies may tighten between now and 1985, no disruptive shortage is forseen. World production will be able to satisfy world demand. Under these circumstances crude petroleum prices will not rise above the rate of general inflation. Although the world crude petroleum market will remain in balance and thus experience no drastic price increase through 1985, OPEC exports will continue to balance supply with demand in most of the world's petroleum consuming nations. Therefore, in the absence of price controls, the world price for all crude petroleum will move toward the OPEC price. Since no critical shortage of crude petroleum is expected, OPEC will not be able to increase prices arbitrarily; however prices will increase relative to the rate of inflation. The desire of the OPEC nations to maximize their export revenues is limited by their need to avoid disrupting the world economy, by the cost of alternative energy souces, and by the availability of crude petroleum in other markets as the price increases. World crude petroleum production is expected to increase, especially in the period after 1980. The more exotic energy forms, such as oil shale and tar sands, are not expected to contribute significantly to the total energy supply by 1985. It is noted that coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, and geothermal sources are expected to reduce the future demand for crude petroleum and natural gas. The average annual energy demand for the world is expected to grow at a rate of 4.5% for 1975-1980, and 4.4% for 1975-1985. For the United States, future energy growth rates are expected to be 2.8% per year from 1975 to 1980 and 2.5% per year from 1975 to 1985.

  • Corporate Authors:

    United States International Trade Commission

    701 E Street, NW
    Washington, DC  USA  20436
  • Authors:
    • Gersic, J J
    • Deyman, G L
  • Publication Date: 1977-9

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 33 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00167480
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: USITC Pub. 832
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: May 18 1978 12:00AM