A critical review is made of information relative to effects of aircraft emissions (NOx, SO2, H2O) projected to 1990 on the earth's protective ozone shield and on mean surface temperature, as estimated from appropriate mathematical models. Potential biological effects are not reviewed. The review provides information showing the large uncertainties in computations of effects on ozone, due to uncertainties in NOx emission indices (accepted values may be several-fold low), in chemistry, in troposphere-stratosphere interchange processes, and in future stratospheric composition (principally chlorine content); estimates of effects can be expected to change as new data are obtained. Current results indicate that aircraft NOx effects on the ozone column change sign with aircraft altitude: subsonic aircraft, cruising at 6-km to 14-km altitude, enhance or have almost no effect on the ozone column; supersonic aircraft (mach-2 class), cruising at 16-km to 19-km, reduce total ozone, but, for given NOx rates, by amounts less than previously reported. Computations based on a 'high' (rapid growth) estimate for the 1990 total fleet of subsonic and supersonic aircraft, assuming current engines and accepted NOx emission indices, including an estimated 142 Concordes and Tupolevs, showed an average ozone enhancement in the Northern Hemisphere of about 0.4 percent to 0.9 percent, varying with season.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Institute for Defense Analyses

    400 Army Navy Drive
    Arlington, VA  United States  22202
  • Authors:
    • Oliver, R C
    • Bauer, E
    • Hidalgo, H
    • Gardner, K A
    • Wasylkiwskyj, W
  • Publication Date: 1977-3

Media Info

  • Pagination: 401 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00166007
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: FAA-EQ-77-3 Final Rpt., P-1207
  • Contract Numbers: DOT-FA76WA-3757
  • Files: NTIS, TRIS
  • Created Date: Sep 20 1978 12:00AM