A PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF EMBANKMENT STABILITY PROBLEMS
In this thesis, a probabilistic model is developed to predict the reliability of an embankment constructed on soft saturated clay. The model is based on a circular arc method of analysis, supplemented with a measure of the uncertainty in the resisting and overturning moments. The uncertainty in the overturning moment was considered negligible in this thesis. The uncertainty in the resisting moment was considered due to the uncertainties of bias, random testing error, and inherent soil variability. Two case studies were analyzed in this thesis by both the conventional method of analysis and the probability model. The results indicate that the uncertainties in bias correction factors are the dominant sources for both field vane testing and unconfined compression testing. The basic probability model is then extended to include the effect of embankment length on the computed failure probability. Two approaches are taken. The first is a direct extension of the basic model, considering the actual embankment length as a multiple of the minimum embankment length required to satisfy the assumption of "plane strain." The second approach is three dimensional probability model developed from a first passage failure criterion. /Author/
U.S. Army Waterways Experiment Station3909 Halls Ferry Road
Vicksburg, MS USA 39180-6199
- Gilbert, L W
- Publication Date: 1977-7
- Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 150 p.
- TRT Terms: Compression tests; Embankments; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Probability theory; Soft clays; Soils; Stability (Mechanics); Uncertainty
- Old TRIS Terms: Embankment stability; Resistance
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Geotechnology; Highways;
- Accession Number: 00164079
- Record Type: Publication
- Report/Paper Numbers: Misc Paper S-77-10 Final Rpt.
- Files: TRIS, ATRI
- Created Date: Nov 9 1977 12:00AM