PROBABILISTIC EVALUATION OF EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED SLOPE FAILURE. TECHNICAL NOTE

When there is an estimate of the probability of static failure for a set of slopes, based on historical records, maps, and subjective judgment, it is often necessary to estimate the additional hazard presented by earthquakes. Combining the procedures of reliability analysis with conventional recurrence relations for horizontal earthquake accelerations leads to a simple formulation that is easily implemented on a spreadsheet. For simple failure modes, the dynamic factor of safety is a simple function of the static factor of safety, the amplified acceleration, the slope of the failure surface, and the friction angle. Application of the technique to the slopes of the Montes de Caneja in Puerto Rico indicates that the additional risk caused by earthquakes is approximately one-tenth of the static probability of failure, but other sets of input parameters can give probabilities of failure during earthquakes that are comparable to the static values.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/3519342
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  345 East 47th Street
  New York, NY  United States  10017-2398
• Authors:
  • Christian, J T
  • Urzua, A
• Publication Date: 1998-11

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 1140-43
• Serial:
  • Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering
  • Volume: 124
  • Issue Number: 11
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 1090-0241
  • Serial URL: http://ojps.aip.org/gto

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Acceleration (Mechanics); Analysis; Earthquakes; Failure; Friction; Mathematical models; Probability; Reliability; Risk analysis; Safety factors; Slope failure; Spreadsheets; Stresses; Structural analysis
• Uncontrolled Terms: Friction angle; Probabilistic analysis
• Geographic Terms: Puerto Rico
• Old TRIS Terms: Analytical techniques; Failure mode; Horizontal stresses
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Geotechnology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; I42: Soil Mechanics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00758532
• Record Type: Publication
• Contract Numbers: BCS-93-00043, UST 541/94E, NSC 85-2211-E-006-063
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jan 10 1999 12:00AM