HOW GOOD ARE AIRPORT PLANNING FORECASTS?

This article which focusses on forecasts of passengers and related operations for air carriers (certificated, intra-state, third-level, and supplemental carriers) refers to the lack of user input to the FAA Circulars, comments on macro forecasts, traffic growth rates, and aircraft movements. It is noted that the Air Transportation Association (ATA) forecast covers rates and volumes annually through the year 2000 and is the result of a comprehensive update. This forecast can be used to compare individual airport growth rates and changes in share of U.S. traffic. It is pointed out that identifying and substantiating local variations is an important step toward minimizing disagreements over forecasts and minimizing the chance of error due to straight linear extrapolations of growth. ATA forecasts provide detail on 2 key elements affecting aircraft movement; aircraft size and load factor. Problems associated with the relationship between daily and peak hour aircraft movements are discussed, and a checklist is provided for testing the credibility of forecasts of aircraft passengers and aircraft operations.

• Corporate Authors:

  Lakewood Publications

  731 Hennepin
  Minneapolis, MN  United States  55403
• Authors:
  • Whitehead, K R
• Publication Date: 1973-10

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 61-65
• Serial:
  • AIRPORT SERVICES MANAGEMENT
  • Volume: 14
  • Issue Number: 10

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic; Aircraft; Airlines; Airports; Economic growth; Forecasting; Passengers; Peak hour traffic; Traffic volume
• Uncontrolled Terms: Growth rate
• Old TRIS Terms: Air traffic forecasts; Airport forecasts
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Freight Transportation; Passenger Transportation; Terminals and Facilities; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00155602
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Federal Aviation Administration
• Files: TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Aug 31 1977 12:00AM