UNCERTAINTY AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF AIRPORTS

While it is noted that there is no master checklist of all variables that may affect individual airports, there are some elements common to all good airport forecasts: correlation analyses of relationships between traffic and basic socioeconomic indicators; quantitative projection of these indicators; and judgement. The various factors affecting correlation analyses for air passengers are listed. Good judgement is needed to select the best types and specific parameters of mathematical curves (the most common types are listed) to be used. Long-term growth trends in population, GNP, and electricity output by utilities for public use, and airline domestic and international passenger-miles in scheduled service are illustrated and discussed. The problem of discontinuities is discussed, as well as the positive and negative factors in the travel market. Comments are made on forecasting design parameters, and a strategy is suggested for coping with the uncertainty of the future.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/6072282
• Corporate Authors:

  IPC Transport Press, Limited

  Dorset House, Stamford Street
  London SE1 9LU,   England 
• Authors:
  • Bluestone, D W
• Publication Date: 1975-5

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 35-42
• Serial:
  • Airports International
  • Issue Number: 48
  • Publisher: Key Publishing, Limited
  • ISSN: 0002-2853

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Airport planning; Airports; Correlation analysis; Forecasting; Long range planning; Passengers; Socioeconomic factors; Tourism; Traffic estimation; Uncertainty
• Uncontrolled Terms: Long term
• Old TRIS Terms: Airport forecasts; Traffic forecasts; Travel market
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Economics; Freight Transportation; Passenger Transportation; Society; Terminals and Facilities;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00155574
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Federal Aviation Administration
• Files: TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Aug 31 1977 12:00AM