ESTIMATION OF PERSON TRIP PATTERNS AND MODAL SPLIT

In transportation planning, it is important to have knowledge of person trip patterns. The largest number of persons make trips having a piston-type pattern (1 cycle, 2 trips). The second largest group have the pattern (2 cycles, 4 trips), the third (1 cycle, 3 trips) and the fourth (1 cycle, 4 trips). Consequently, the larger the number of trips, the fewer the number of persons making trips of this pattern. If we adopt the usual estimation method of demand of person trip, we split up these cycles into trips, we make an od table by summing up these trips, and we split up the trips into modes. In this way, however, the characteristics and constraints that trip-maker had in his chain of trips are neglected. The number of trips in the od table, therefore, no longer has quality. In place of this method, it was proposed by Professor Sasaki in the fifth international symposium that the person trip pattern will be described as a Markov chain. In this paper, the uniformity of the transition matrix between trip-purposes in his model was tested. Satisfactory results were not obtained, but an important fact was found; the transition matrices on and after the second step are stable and not equal to one of the first step. His model was, therefore, reformed in order to adjust for this fact. Another purpose of this paper is to improve the modal split model. In the choice of mode of travel, in order to make good use of the merits of the Markovian model, the following factors are also used; characteristics at trip-ends, trip-purposes, change of purposes, and characteristics of trip-interchange. /TRRL/

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Transportation and Traffic Theory. Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Transportation and Traffic Theory. University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, August 26-28, 1974.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Elsevier

    Radarweg 29
    Amsterdam,   Netherlands  1043 NX
  • Authors:
    • Kondo, K
    • Buckley, D
  • Publication Date: 1974

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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00152911
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
  • Report/Paper Numbers: Proceeding
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 17 1977 12:00AM