This report sees bulkcarriers with summer drafts of 31 to 34 feet as having the best prospects for increased demand. The analysis was deliberately based on draft rather than deadweight because it gives a more accurate picture. Vessel draft is a critical factor in relation to size restrictions at loading and discharging ports, and allows a more realistic analysis. The report examines a whole range of commodities grouped under more than 20 headings and provides trade forecasts which allow for the recession since the base year of 1974. For each trade there is an assignment of employment by weight and route to ship "types" determined by actual experience, and by reference to optimum type, i.e. the ship which would give the lowest cost per ton and the route, within the physical parameters of the operation. Employment for a type is calculated in terms to type equivalents, i.e. how many ships in the class, if equated with the modern "type" ship, would be required through the period to lift the total tonnage on each route. This brings into account the effect of ballasting, and loading and discharging, and is a measure of the ships and time required. Comparing this with the commodity total, calculated for a known period of 12 months, gives an accurate method of expressing prospects of greater or less employment for a type, and combined with the totals derived for other main commodities on offer in the tramp market, of the prospects for a type in general and in comparison with other types. The disparity between the actual summer draft of vessels and the "trading" draft adopted by vessels cutting size in the grain trades is a distinctive feature of the report. In addition, the report assesses demand in 1976 and 1978, and in particular how 1976 has fared during the recession compared with 1974. Westinform also show the part that the re-opening of the Suez Canal has played in dampening ship demand since 1974, and conclude that the shorter routing has only reduced demand by 2-4 per cent depending on the size of the vessel.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Price $100 including postage.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Westinform Service

  • Publication Date: 1977

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00156263
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Westinform Service
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 2 1977 12:00AM