FORECASTS OF AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY BY ALTITUDE, WORLD REGION, AND AIRCRAFT TYPE
The level of international air traffic on a world-wide basis is analyzed for the base year of 1975 and forecast for the years of 1980, 1985, and 1990. An econometric model is used to forecast flight activity using regional economic and population data and data on fuel prices and other aircraft operating costs. Other models transform these forecasts into estimates of aircraft flight hours at various altitudes over areas of the globe. A special model was devised which probabilistically assigns flight-hour activity to specific aircraft types in future years as fleet composition changes. The evidence illustrates the prominence of U.S., European, and U.S.-European traffic in total activity. It also indicated the gradual transition to wide-body aircraft and the gradual phasing out of four-engine, narrow-body transports. (Author)
- See also Rept. no. FAA-RD-76-15 dated Apr 76, AD-A027 880.
Stanford Research Institute333 Ravenswood Avenue
Menlo Park, CA United States 94025
- Pozdena, R J
- Publication Date: 1976-11
- Pagination: 130 p.
- TRT Terms: Aeronautics; Air pollution; Air traffic; Air transportation; Altitude; Areas; Civil aviation; Databases; Econometrics; Flight paths; Forecasting; International; International trade; Mathematical models; Military organizations; Operating costs; Passenger aircraft; Routing; Scheduling; Wide body aircraft
- Uncontrolled Terms: Military applications; Models
- Old TRIS Terms: Air traffic forecasts; Geographic areas
- Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Planning and Forecasting;
- Accession Number: 00158550
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: FAA-AVP-76-18 Final Rpt.
- Contract Numbers: DOT-FA75WA-3574
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Aug 31 1978 12:00AM