CHAPTER 1. TRANSPORT AND GLOBAL WARMING: MODELLING THE IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES

This chapter first discusses the economic models developed by its authors to forecast greenhouse gas emissions under alternative policy scenarios. The main models used are the car model, the public transport model, and the road freight model. The UK Government rejected European Commission (EC) proposals to introduce a general carbon tax to address global warming, and instead extended Value Added Tax (VAT) to domestic fuel and increased motor fuel duty. The author's three scenarios are: (1) a base scenario holding fuel prices at their early 1996 levels; (2) Scenario 1, allowing for the Government's commitment to raise real fuel duty by at least 5% per year; and (3) Scenario 2, which doubles real motor fuel prices between 1994 and 2005. For these scenarios, charts show the authors' forecasts of UK petrol price trends for 1990 to 2024 and UK car emissions of carbon dioxide as carbon, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds for the years 1991 to 2025. The car model can be used to predict the impact of different fuel price regimes on car ownership, traffic, and emission levels. The models have been developed further in a project to develop a model of road fuel consumption for the Department of Transport. Finally, some issues for future research and policy analysis are discussed. For the covering abstract, see IRRD E101216.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0419231404
• Corporate Authors:

  E & FN SPON

  11 NEW FETTER LANE
  LONDON,   United Kingdom  EC4P 4EE
• Authors:
  • ACUTT, M
  • DODGSON, J
• Publication Date: 1998

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 20-37
• Serial:
  • TRANSPORT POLICY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
  • Publisher: E & FN SPON

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Carbon; Economics; Environmental impact analysis; Federal government; Forecasting; Freight transportation; Fuels; Gases; Greenhouse effect; Mathematical models; Policy; Pollutants; Public transit; Taxes
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• ITRD Terms: 1243: Car; 7158: Carbon; 255: Economics; 2442: Emission; 132: Forecast; 3850: Fuel; 6734: Gas; 741: Goods traffic; 183: Government (national); 2451: Greenhouse effect; 2436: Impact study (environment); 6473: Mathematical model; 173: Policy; 744: Public transport; 268: Tax; 8119: United Kingdom
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Finance; Freight Transportation; Policy; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00766838
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-419-23140-4
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Aug 2 1999 12:00AM