The main objective of this research is to characterize patterns of new drivers' crash rates per 30 day periods over one year after obtaining the first driving permit. The data set contains the individual records for all the new licensees from the province of Quebec (220'467) who started the process of acquiring a license between March 1, 1989 and February 28, 1993, two years before and after the reform of March 1, 1991 which changed the rules of access to a first driving license. To have comparable groups, the candidates had to succeed in obtaining the license within 270 days of obtaining the learner's permit, and the driving record had to be available for a full year following licensing. The Societe de l'assurance automobile du Quebec (SAAQ), the provincial insurer for bodily injuries, that also regulates and administers the access to driving licenses, created a special file containing the variables gender, date of birth, dates of obtaining the learner's permit and the driving license, and the dates of any crashes. The event "crash during the i-th 30 day period" (one or more versus none, i=1 to 12) was modeled by a logistic regression using the generalized estimating equations approach to estimate the regression coefficients. Men and women were analyzed separately as the crash rate for women is about half the one for men. The models with all the available explanatory variables included show an age effect with significantly lower crash rates for men and women at least 20 years old; an experience effect that indicates diminishing crash rates particularly over the first four months after licensing; lower crash rates for those who pass the theory exam in the first attempt (both genders); but no effect of the reform on crash rates. New licensees constitute a heterogeneous group in terms of crash rates even though the law and regulations apply uniformly.

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    PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

    Glenthorne House, Hammersmith Grove
    London W6OL9,   England 
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  • Publication Date: 1998


  • English

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  • Accession Number: 00766102
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: VTI konferens 9A part 4
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jul 26 1999 12:00AM