IMPROVED GREY PREDICTION MODELS FOR THE TRANS-PACIFIC AIR PASSENGER MARKET

This paper examines the effect the rapid economic growth of the Asia-Pacific countries continues to have on the travel growth in the trans-Pacific air passenger markets. Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory dealing with systems characterized by poor information and/or for which information is lacking. The paper attempts to apply grey theory to international air passenger prediction modeling by developing models for the trans-Pacific markets. Time series models were developed for forecasting total passenger traffic and 10 country-pair passenger traffic in the market. Introduced is a new technique that combines residual modification and residual Markov-chain sign estimation to improve the accuracy of the original models. The results of the improved models are tested to examine their reliability, and they are compared with both those of multiple regression models and autoregressice integrated moving-average models.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    GORDON AND BREACH SCIENCE PUB.

    AMSTERDAM:
    ,    
  • Authors:
    • Hsu, C
    • Wen, Y
  • Publication Date: 1999

Language

  • English

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00765318
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 13 1999 12:00AM