The process of transportation planning begins with an assumed land use and then projects future traffic volumes. To determine land-use limitations as a function of the capacity of the transportation system, this paper reverses the direction of the planning process, beginning with transportation system characteristics as the independent variable and employment and population as dependent variables. Ultimately, a direct estimation model is developed. This technique directly estimates zonal trip ends based on transportation system variables that include link volumes, roadway types, travel distances, and the geographical position of the zone. Additionally, the paper regresses retail employment, nonretail employment, and population to zonal trip ends. It calibrates this model for the 1967 base year in the Charlottesville, Virginia, area and then applies it for the 1979 forecast year. Lessons learned are used to calibrate the model for the 1979 base year (a training set of data) and apply it for the 1990 forecast year (a test set of data). This model formulation might be interpreted to yield land-use limits as a function of traffic volumes, with subsequent application of this approach used to consider policy options that arise in the context of transportation planning.


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Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00763643
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Contract Numbers: HKUST719/96E, 10202455/13308/14100/302/01, IHR-535
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: May 25 1999 12:00AM