FORECASTING DEMAND AT AIRPORTS
Airport planning information needs are investigated. Three forecast types are defined: long range, planning, and operating. Each has different requirements for output, detail and accuracy. A flexible forecasting methodology is proposed and applied to make a long range forecast for Bangkok. This case study demonstrate some of the problems of forecasting and attempts to overcome them. Uncertainty about the future and each of data prevent accurate forecasts. These constraints cannot be elimenated or even appreciably reduced. Forecasts will remain inaccurate. Detail and the development of sophisticated techniques are less important than cost effectiveness and sensitivity analysis. The forecaster should select methods to fit the situation and overall methodology. Judgement is control to all methods. The forecaster should outline his judgement explicitly in assumptions and scenarios. The planner should design flexible facilities to accommodate the differences between forecast and actual demand.
Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Civil Engineering, 77 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA USA 02139
- Moore Jr, H L
- Publication Date: 1973-9
- Pagination: 262 p.
- TRT Terms: Accuracy; Airport planning; Cost effectiveness; Demand; Economic forecasting; Flexibility; Judgment (Human characteristics); Long range planning; Methodology; Sensitivity analysis; Traffic estimation; Travel demand; Uncertainty
- Uncontrolled Terms: Long term
- Old TRIS Terms: Traffic forecasts
- Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Freight Transportation; Terminals and Facilities;
- Accession Number: 00155450
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Sep 20 1977 12:00AM