FORECASTING DEMAND AT AIRPORTS

Airport planning information needs are investigated. Three forecast types are defined: long range, planning, and operating. Each has different requirements for output, detail and accuracy. A flexible forecasting methodology is proposed and applied to make a long range forecast for Bangkok. This case study demonstrate some of the problems of forecasting and attempts to overcome them. Uncertainty about the future and each of data prevent accurate forecasts. These constraints cannot be elimenated or even appreciably reduced. Forecasts will remain inaccurate. Detail and the development of sophisticated techniques are less important than cost effectiveness and sensitivity analysis. The forecaster should select methods to fit the situation and overall methodology. Judgement is control to all methods. The forecaster should outline his judgement explicitly in assumptions and scenarios. The planner should design flexible facilities to accommodate the differences between forecast and actual demand.

  • Corporate Authors:

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    Department of Civil Engineering, 77 Massachusetts Avenue
    Cambridge, MA  United States  02139
  • Authors:
    • Moore Jr, H L
  • Publication Date: 1973-9

Media Info

  • Pagination: 262 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00155450
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Sep 20 1977 12:00AM