LABORATORY TESTING OF PREDICTIVE LAND USE MODELS: SOME COMPARISONS
The purpose of the research described was to compare and evaluate operational land use forecasting models, and to suggest a procedure by which such comparisons and evaluations may be done for such models in the future. A thorough review of available operational models suggested two major types of models to be tested: the EMPIRIC, and the LOWRY derivative models. The method of testing involved two parts. First, the parameters of each model were estimated for a common data base. Second, each model was used to make forecasts of the impact of different policy inputs, and the responses of each model to these inputs were compared. The results of the parameter estimating suggest that either model can be made to fit a base period data-set rather well. The lack of any explicit macro-behavioral structure to the EMPIRIC model makes interpretation of its parameters somewhat difficult. DRAM, the LOWRY derivative model which was tested, has a rather clear macro-behavioral structure and yielded parameters consistent with the theory underlying that structure. With regard to the policy tests, EMPIRIC was found to be very insensitive to changes in inputs. DRAM, by contrast, was properly sensitive to all the various policies tested. All in all, the testing of different models on a common data-set was a good method for comparison and evaluation.
University of Pennsylvania, PhiladelphiaDepartment of City and Regional Planning, 210 S 34th Street
Philadelphia, PA USA 19104-6311
Department of Transportation1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC USA 20590
National Science Foundation1800 G Street, NW
Washington, DC USA 20550
- Putman, S H
- Publication Date: 1976-10
- Pagination: 134 p.
- TRT Terms: Calibration; City planning; Databases; Evaluation; Forecasting; Land use; Land use models; Mathematical models; Policy; Sensitivity
- Subject Areas: Policy;
- Accession Number: 00154768
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: DOT/TPI/10-77-07 Final Rpt.
- Contract Numbers: NSF-GI-38978
- Files: NTIS, TRIS, USDOT
- Created Date: Jun 17 1977 12:00AM