ON RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE ABSENCE OF COMPLETE DATA

A major problem in assessing risks in advanced systems is that: (1) all of the potential consequences are not known nor anticipated; and (2) even when risks are anticipated there is uncertainty in the data. Several mathematical risk assessment theories are summarized in this report, and their deficiencies in the absence of complete data are discussed. The mathematical basis of risk assessment is considered, and the basic problems of moving from a discrete to a continuous consequence-frequency distribution are discussed. The application of these concepts to waste disposal and storage of high level radioactive waste, risk to ground populations due to airline crashes, and nuclear power plant risks are reviewed and discussed.

  • Corporate Authors:

    University of California, Los Angeles

    School of Architecture and Urban Planning
    Los Angeles, CA  USA  90024

    National Science Foundation

    Research Applied to National Needs
    Washington, DC  USA  20550
  • Authors:
    • Kastenberg, W E
    • MCKONE, T E
    • Okrent, D
  • Publication Date: 1976-7

Media Info

  • Pagination: 50 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00151585
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
  • Report/Paper Numbers: UCLA-ENG-7677, NSF/RA-760325
  • Contract Numbers: NSF-GI-39416, NSF-OEP75-20318
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 13 1977 12:00AM