REPORT ON PROBABILITY OF COLLISIONS ON SELECTED ROUTES. VOLUME I
Lifetime collision probability on two nuclear tanker routes and one nuclear container route were calculated based on route collision frequency obtained from the Liverpool Underwriters Casualty Returns for an eleven year period and a route density projection to 1990 performed by Planning Systems Inc. In calculating the probability the methodology developed in Ref. 7 was used to get the number of vessels to be found in a circular area of encounter travelling with the nuclear vessel. A model was obtained for the probability of collision on a given route for the lifetime of a nuclear vessel. Sensitivity studies were made for variations in nuclear vessel speed, speed of other vessels, and average density of ships in a given grid square of ocean, but not for the number of collisions per unit time in such grid square.
- Sponsored in part by Babcock and Wilcox Co., Lynchburg, Va.
Sharp (George G) Incorporated100 Church Street
New York, NY United States 10007
Maritime Administration1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
Washington, DC United States 20590
Babcock and Wilcox CompanyPO Box 1260
Lynchburg, VA United States 24504
- Publication Date: 1976-9-30
- Pagination: 48 p.
- TRT Terms: Computer programming; Crashes; Distributions (Statistics); Forecasting; Mathematical models; Nuclear powered ships; Probability theory; Safety; Statistics; Studies; Trade routes; Water transportation crashes
- Old TRIS Terms: Collision modeling; Collision statistics; Trade route studies
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Marine Transportation; Safety and Human Factors;
- Accession Number: 00151584
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
- Report/Paper Numbers: MA-RD-920-77021 Final Rpt.
- Contract Numbers: MA-5516t
- Files: TRIS, USDOT
- Created Date: Apr 13 1977 12:00AM