The primary purpose of this study is to forecast general cargo tonnage, in the short term (1976, 1977), for California exports and imports. All historical and forecast data are on the basis of short tons, rather than weight or measurement tons. (The use of short tons was mandated by the availability of data -- revenue tons data, while superior to short tons data, were not available for the historical period.) The forecasts presented in this study were based on the major macroeconomic variables that most strongly determine general cargo trade flows. A base forecast was derived using a causal model. This forecast was then modified to some degree, judgementally, in order to include some economic considerations that, for technical resons, could not be accurately represented in the model. The methodolgy employed in this study differs from that of many other studies, which derive their total tonnage forecasts by summing individual forecasts of major commodities. Many of these other forecasts are based on some type of historical average, and, as such, ignore general economic considerations. Importantly, the forecasts in this study are based on economic considerations only, and do no include noneconomic factors such as changing political regimes, embargoes, court actions, etc. As demonstrated by the OPEC oil embargo, these politically motivated economic factors can cause substantial distortions and realignments in general cargo trade flows.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Paper presented to the California Sections of SNAME, Fall Joint Meeting, Santa Barbara, California, 9 Oct 1976.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers

    601 Pavonia Avenue
    Jersey City, NJ  United States  07306-2907
  • Authors:
    • Craver Jr, T F
  • Publication Date: 1976-10

Media Info

  • Pagination: 23 p.

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00150425
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Apr 13 1977 12:00AM